The Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) recently released data that project more than a 17% decline in high school graduates from 2023 to 2041 in Pennsylvania.

Their estimates are largely based on U.S. birthrates. According to their data, the country is expected to see a peak of high school graduates in 2025 (3.9 million), and then a steady decline to 3.4 million by 2041.

From the report:

WICHE projects that the total number of high school graduates will peak in 2025 before entering a period of steady decline through 2041 attributable to fewer births 18 years prior. Ultimately, the nation is projected to see a 13% decline from the peak through the end of the projections.

Pennsylvania’s percentage drop is the second steepest in the region behind New York at 27%, which could mean creative recruitment strategies for smaller colleges and universities like Arcadia University in Glenside.

“Demography need not be destiny,” WICHE president Demarée Michelau said in the report. “There are proven approaches to increasing student access and success, especially for those whom higher education has not historically served well.”

The Philadelphia Inquirer reported that colleges in the region “are looking more deeply at creating programs in the highest-demand areas, broadening student recruitment regions, offering competitive pricing for graduate degrees, and serving older, nontraditional students.”

You can read WICHE’s report here.

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